This week there may not be a "whole lot" of big time games, but there are a few games you should keep your eye on. So let's get to it!
Tonight!
#2 Florida State @ #25 Louisville (Line: Louisville +3.5)
Why?
1. It's a Thursday night game!
2. We all know about Florida State, but Louisville has a very serious D! Least amount of yards given up in the country, and 4th in points allowed at less than 15 per game... Oh, and FYI they take the ball away too, 15 INT's on the year second only to the "Land Sharks" of Ole Miss and some forced fumbles... Top that off with their 29 sacks on the season and we're looking at some guys that are going to get after Mr. Famous Jameis.
Wow, why haven't we talked about them before, and aren't they favored tonight?
Well when you can't pass the ball and you're even worse at running the thing, it's hard to score points. And when your QB is constantly getting sacked and your running backs/receivers are coughing the ball up, you're not going to get too much press.
- The Lousiville QB's have been sacked 27 times this season, that's 7th WORST.
- The Cardinals have 12 fumbles... 12! on the season. Protect the Pill Son!
That said, If the Cardinal D can find a way to create those turnovers they've been doing this season, and give their offense the short field to work with... And, if the Louisville line can maybe block a guy or 2 and the the boys can hang on to the ball... We've got a game on our hands.
and once again... It's a Thursday night game... And The fans will be ready for Halloween.
I'm rooting for the Cards to pull the upset... and these Thursday night games have a history of causing chaos...
Saturday
2:30 p.m.
Florida Vs. #11 Georgia (Line: Florida +12.5)
Why?
1. It's the "Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party"
2. If Florida doesn't get the W, Will Muschamp can just head back and start cleaning out his office.
3. Nothing screams college football more than this... Watch the video from the Florida/Georgia game back in 2007 below (and look at the confusion on Tebow's face...) That's how the tone for the afternoon is set!
#7 TCU @ #20 West Virginia (Line: WVU +5.5)
Why?
Playoff implications are on the line for TCU, and they are looking better and better each week. At the same time, West Virginia can still win the Big 12.
I'll gladly give up the 5.5 points and take TCU in this one. Since that letdown against Baylor where they gave up 24 points in the final 11:30. They have just been ruthless... Just STOMPING guys. These are angry people, just give them what they want and get out of the way.
6:00 p.m.
#3 Auburn @ #4 Ole Miss (Line: Ole Miss +2)
Why?
You already know why you need to be watching this one. 2 damn good teams going to go at it. It's time for the wild SEC West to start devouring itself. Winner get's to stay in the playoff picture, loser get's to play the role of spoiler for the next guy on the list.
Let's make it clear, the playoffs may " Officially Start" on January 1. But, they're already well on their way. And this appears to be an elimination round for these two.
6:30 p.m.
Stanford @ #5 Oregon (Line: Stanford +7.5)
Why?
While Stanford has been very mortal with 3 losses thus far this season, they seem to be kryptonite the Ducks. Granted, Stanford has only allowed 12.5 points per game this season, but considering they can't score any points themselves, this SHOULD be Oregon's game to win... They just need to keep Mariota upright and off his back.
Later Games.
#12 Arizona @ #22 UCLA (Line: Arizona +6.5)
I'm not sure how UCLA can be favored in this game....
#17 Utah @ #14 Arizona State (Line: Utah +6)
It would really be nice to know what team I should get excited about out west. In the mean time, we'll just keep them "all" on the radar.
Well, the guys on College GameDay will tell you "This is a take care of business kind of week"... I like to cut through the crap,,, "There ain't much $h!+ going on this week" There is one game worth tuning into, which I'll get to here in a second, but other than that, the score tracker app on your phone will do just fine this week... And I don't want to get ahead of myself, but it doesn't look like you'll need much more than that for next week as well.
So why even bother? Well, if I've learned nothing else, I've learned there is ALWAYS a "complete shocker" sometime during the weeks of 8, 9, 10 and 11 that sends the college football world upside down.
That said, here are a few games to check in on every now and then.
11:00 a.m. Texas @ #11 Kansas State - Line: Texas +10
Why?
The Cats had a big upset win IN Oklahoma last week (insert proud face here: I took the Cats and the points against the Sooners), they've got 1 loss, IF they can keep it that way, they'll be in the mix come the end of the season, considering that 1 loss was a tough one against Auburn. And as I've stated Texas is a wildcard every week.
2:30 p.m. #1 Mississippi State @ Kentucky - Line: Kentucky +13.5
Why?
I hope this isn't a game, but simple question... Would you get excited to play Kentucky? Remember, we're talking football, not basketball. With that said, Kentucky IS improved, are they a real threat? Well if you're out drinking all the bourbon in Lexington the night before the game, yeah they could be. Dogs, please just stay focused and kick ass like you're supposed to.
Michigan @ #8 Michigan State - Line: Michigan +17
Why?
1. It's still a "Rivalry" game (please notice the quotation marks)
2. It COULD be the last time you see Brady Hoke on the sidelines wearing the "maize" and blue..
3. For god's sake the line is 17,... Check in to see if the Wolverines can at least cover.
#22 West Virginia @ Oklahoma State - Line: West Virginia +1
Why?
Well, both teams may have 2 losses, 1 loss each in conference, a Big 12 Championship is still not out of the question for either of these teams (though not likely)... AND Wow! The spread is only 1 point!
5:00 p.m. #15 Arizona @ Washington State - Line: Washington State +2.5
Why?
As the line shows, this is a potential upset. These are 2 offenses that can put points on the board. The real bet here is the over/under at 72.5 points. Personally, I think were talking more 80+ when it's said and done.
7:00 p.m. #13 Ohio State @ Penn State - Line: Penn State +14
Why?
1. Penn State is at home and has had 2 weeks to prepare, and after dropping 2 in a row. They kind of need this.
2. ... It's on ABC???
7:30 p.m. #4 Alabama @ Tennessee - Line: Tennessee +17
Why?
Because Robin Kiffin (Lane's mom) is worried about her baby boy being on the sideline when he returns to Tennessee for the first time... Awww...
On a serious note, while lengthy the CBS report is an interesting read.
Late Game: #20 USC @ #19 Utah - Line: Utah +1
Why?
1. Should be a good game
2. MAYBE someone will look like they want to win the Pac 12 South... Maybe...
Finally!!! Let's talk about the game to WATCH!!!
... and to no surprise, it's down in the Southeastern portion of the country....
6:15 p.m. #3 Ole Miss @ #24 LSU - Line: LSU +3.5
I'll let those guys on ESPN talk about how good the Ole Miss D is, and how Bo Wallace has done a good job, not turning the ball over the past three or four weeks. You want that info, turn on GameDay or head on over to ESPN/Yahoo whatever your favorite sports site is... I don't really care...
Because it's not the "stats" that's going to make this one fun to watch... it's the recent history between these two that's going to make this one enjoyable...
You: "Case, the 'history' between LSU and Ole Miss?"
Me: "Yes... the history between these two... stay with me, clearly you've forgotten what's gone on over the past few years..."
Let's start back in 2011 when the #1 Tigers were on the road at a VERY YOUNG Ole Miss, as expected, LSU crushed the Rebels. Les didn't want to run up the score, and instructed his offense to take a knee, which is commendable when you're up 52-3... BUT! It did raise a lot of eyebrows considering there was more than 5 minutes to go in the game... (and not to mention the 2 timeouts the Rebels had) Some say this "Started the war" between Ole Miss and LSU...
Then in 2012, the 8th ranked LSU Tigers hosted the unranked (Young) Rebels. Ole Miss fought hard and took a 7 point lead (35-28) with 11:11 to go in the game, LSU tied the game on a punt return with 9:10 to go, and... with 15 seconds left in the game, Jeremy Hill went over the top to give LSU the win, 41-35... And this is what Les Miles had to say after the game...
(Note: this was NOT a response to a question, this was his opening remarks)
If you're confused, it's ok... You're not the only one. The SEC was very confused and concerned. They employed the National Security Agency (NSA) to break down the coach's comments to better understand his mental stability and... just exactly what in the hell was he talking about?
Top officials at the agency worked on the case around the clock for months with no luck...
Finally, one of their local sources provided them with a lead of 2 masterminds that were fluent in the language...
But...
When these were the 2 guys that walked in...
They said "F--- It", and added the speech to the wonders of the world list...
Then!
Last year, back in Oxford, the Rebels finally (with some experience under their belt) got their revenge against the 6th ranked Tigers. It was very similar to the game in 2012, Ole Miss went into the 4th quarter with a 10 point lead, 24-14. LSU whittled away and tied it up with 3:19 left in the game. However, this time Ole Miss would not be denied. They chewed up the remaining time on a 13 play drive which ended with a 41 yard field goal to pull off the upset 27-24.
So what does all this mean for this year? Well it's funny how the tides have turned, we've got a veteran Rebel team ranked #3 in the country vs a VERY YOUNG LSU. The only difference is talent pops up like weeds at LSU (and it has to with the revolving door to the NFL they've got going on over there).
This year's cast of characters for LSU (or roster as some call it) includes 18 TRUE FRESHMEN that have already seen the field, with many starting or seeing significant playing time, including QB Brandon Harris (TRUE FRESHMAN QB in the SEC...) and RB, Leonard Fournette who has already started his own personal Heisman campaign, but is going to need some time to work on the pose...
Rookie, what are you doing???
You've got the whole thing jazzed up...
You've gotta bring that right leg over and lean to the left...
... and what are you doing with that left hand? Are you calling someone????
What's the matter with you?
Here... Please, just take a look at Dez, he's got the idea...
...Rookies...
Anyways, let's get back to this... Young LSU... Veteran Ole Miss...
The Ole Miss "Land Shark" D is the real deal (and #1 in the country) giving up a stingy 10.6 points per game.
Vegas has the Tigers as 3.5 dogs... But even with that experience gap, the game is still in Death Valley, "Where dreams come to die" -Les Miles. AT NIGHT. Now, Dak Prescott, and Mississippi State went in there at night earlier this year and put on a show... But to think LSU would lose 2 games at home AT NIGHT and one of those losses ISN'T even against Alabama (who they play at home in a few weeks) is almost incomprehensible.
That said, I expect the Rebel's to be prepared for this. Hell, the last 2 years have been a dog fight between these 2...
All the football logic is saying "Take Ole's Miss!" They've got the D, Bo Wallace has played well as of late, they're hungry, they're making plays...But I can't do it. I gotta take LSU... But! bet your ass I'm going to take those 3.5 points Vegas is giving out. I may need them. We'll call it a... "Just in case".
Aight... Here's the skinny on everything you need to know about all the action tomorrow.
Here are the notable games you should keep an eyeball on...
3:00 p.m. #10 Georgia @ Arkansas (Line: Arkansas +3.5)
- Arkansas played both Texas A&M and Alabama real tough over the last 2 weeks, could be an upset if the Dawgs take their foot off the gas. 6:00 p.m. Tennessee @ #3 Ole Miss (Line: Tennessee +16)
- Don't doze off Rebels... The Vols are CLAWING for a win. - This SHOULD be a stomping though.
6:30 p.m. #19 Nebraska @ Northwestern (Line: Northwestern +7)
- The Cats lost their first 2 games of the season and we wrote them off, then they beat Penn State on the road and followed it up with an upset of Wisconsin. Then they blow it against Minnesota, where a kickoff return cost them the game. Who are these guys? They can't run the ball and they don't score much, but no one seems to want to score on them.
9:30 p.m. #23 Stanford @ #17 Arizona State (Line: Arizona State +3.5)
- Does anyone want to win the Pac 12?
And here are the games in focus this week...
11:00 a.m.
#14 Kansas State @ #11 Oklahoma (Line: Kansas St. +7.5)
Anytime two ranked teams take the field in conference play it's a big game. Here are the facts: Kansas State is undefeated in conference play. They, along with Baylor and Oklahoma State are top dogs. Oklahoma... is Oklahoma, they do have that loss to TCU, but by no means are they out of this thing.
Obviously we've got Oklahoma as the favorite at home, but we're really looking at two evenly matched teams. AND K-State has had two weeks to prepare for the game. Now while that ole dog Bill Snyder hasn't fared too well against the Sooners with 7 wins and 12 losses (3-8 down in Norman). 2 years ago after a bye week, the Cats did go down there and hand the Sooners a loss 24-19.
I think most of us are aware of the talent on Oklahoma, but K-State aint no slouch either. They gave a very good Auburn team all they could handle a few weeks back. I'm curious if the Sooners are going to give Kansas State the respect they deserve....
By The Numbers:
Offense
Passing Yards (Per Game)
Kansas State #51 - (255.0)
Oklahoma #52 - (254.5)
Rushing Yards (Per Game)
Kansas State #46 - (189.0)
Oklahoma #43 - (191.0)
Points For (Per Game)
Kansas State #16 - (40.8)
Oklahoma #17 - (40.5)
Defense
Yards Allowed (Average Per Game)
Kansas State #44 - (444)
Oklahoma #42 - (446)
Points Allowed (Average Per Game)
Kansas State #33 (21.0)
Oklahoma #42 (21.5)
... That's called two equal teams. I've gotta take the 7.5 points their giving out with K-State, but I think the Sooners get them in a close one.
#4 Baylor @ West Virginia (Line: West Virginia +7.5)
Baylor vs West Virginia is a big game? Yes it is, get your pencils out, we've got red flags everywhere. Let's get the easy stuff out of the way... Baylor, big comeback win at home with 24 unanswered points in the last 11:30 to pick up the W over TCU 61-58. By default, when the next game is on the road after a win like that, you're on upset alert.
I know what you're thinking "But Case, the Baylor offense..." Yes I know, WE ALL KNOW why Baylor SHOULD roll we don't need to get into that. I aint interested in talking about something we already know...
With that said, what you may not know is West Virginia can (still) sling it with anyone in the country. No one has hooked up for more yards than Sr. QB, Clint Trickett and Sr. Wide Out Kevin Stats who have connected for 888 yards this season. Trickett has some other options as well and he is 3rd in country with 2203 yards... So these guys can move the ball down the field in a hurry... and while improved, I wouldn't exactly say the Baylor D is something to write home about after giving up 58 points last week.
It depends on how you want to look at it, but West Virginia might have a little MO on their side as well... in the "nobody-cares-news" the Mountaineers are coming off their own come from behind victory on the road against Texas Tech in a similar situation, scoring the last 17 points in the fourth quarter, kicking a game winner as the time expired. This week they've got the home crowd and even though they're not ranked, a win over Baylor will put them right back in the middle of the hunt for the Big 12.
Baylor got the better of West Virginia last year 73-42, but I have a little history lesson for you girls and boys that may have forgotten. This was the game 2 years ago that put Geno Smith on the map (and briefly in the Heisman talk) after completing 45 of 51 against Baylor, for an insane 656 yards, 8 TD's, and a Mountaineer victory 70-63. The jokesters were out comparing the Baylor defense to "no defense" after Geno's Pro Day where he had 4 incompletions compared to 6 in the game against Baylor. Here is the tweet that started the conversation.
"Geno Smith at #WVU Pro Day: 60-of-64 (93.7%) vs. no defense. Smith vs. Baylor: 45-of-51 (88.2%). Meaning Baylor's D is 5.5% better than air." - Patrick Southern
Since then Geno hasn't done much except throw interceptions and yell "F--- Y--" at loyal Jets fans...
... OK back to 2014... I haven't seen an over/under on this game, but these boys are going to light up the scoreboard, so don't get too excited about that first touchdown.
As I look at it, West Virginia may not be aware they're supposed to lose this game, so Baylor better get focused, otherwise a letdown will be brewing for the Bears.
We can keep this one short and sweet. If Bama wins, Texas A&M will have dropped three straight in the SEC West... And that will pretty much do it. Kevin Sulin can start formulating a plan of attack for next year. If A&M can pull the upset on the road, which is "something of a possibility" given Alabama's lackluster performance over the past couple of weeks (a 14-13 win over... Arkansas??? and a loss to Ole Miss) ... all joking aside, the state authorities may want to have the national guard standing by, an angry riot is not out of the question if the Tide go down this week in Tuscaloosa... These people (if you want to call them that) are not used to losing down there. Let's agree to come together on this one and hope the Tide roll...
Side Note: You can argue all you want, but I'm telling you, IF Bama's going to get back on track they're going to need Lane Kiffin to wipe that stupid look off his face...
Yes, That one!
Because they were doing a lot better earlier this season when he was in hiding... ...Or "Stealth Mode"...
Damn it Lane! We can still see you!
And really, the boys looked a lot happier, and things seemed to be going better when he wasn't there at all...
3:00 p.m.
#15 Oklahoma State @ #12 TCU (Line: Oklahoma State +10)
Looks like we're going to learn a lot about the Big 12 this weekend...
Oklahoma State has rattled off 5 in a row when no one was looking... and no one really wants to look when it's against the likes of Kansas and Iowa State... None the less, they are undefeated in Big 12 play. The did play Florida State tough for three quarters in the first game of the season, but we don't know too much about this team, and I'm not sure they know too much about themselves either, this is a young team. We'll see how these guys come together as conference play picks up.
Obviously, I talked a lot about TCU last week. This is a big game for them, how do they handle adversity?
I think Gary Patterson gets the Horned Frogs re-focused and they pull away from the Cowboys in the fourth quarter.
Really don't think we need to explain why this is a big one... This isn't just a #5 @ #2, this is the undefeated, fifth ranked Fighting Irish of Notre Dame on the road, in Tallahassee versus the undefeated, second ranked Seminoles of Florida State...at night... in prime time! ... It gives me the chills just saying it. Oooo
... Now that we've gotten the adrenaline out of the way, let's talk about this a little. When I hear "Top 5 Notre Dame, Florida State, getting ready to go at it!" I think "Boom! The excellence of 1993, Competition at its finest."
When we step out of fantasyland known as the past, and come back to the reality of 2014, there's just this... let down, as things are just... different...
We do have the Noles off of their National Championship, but they don't look anything like last year's team... Or anything like the Noles of the 90's. Last year's team was top notch, giving up 14 points or less in 11 games while putting up no less than 37 points (averaging 51 points), and "the Noles of the 90's"... well.. THEY WERE 'THE NOLES OF THE 90'S" absolutely crushing guys.
This year's team, different story. The analysts have this years Florida State team scheduled in the playoffs, not because they look the part, because they just can't find anyone on their schedule that's good enough to beat them (including the Irish). It's almost like they're the little brother that get's to tag along in this year's playoff... as long as they keep their room clean...
When people are talking about this year's Florida State team the tone is really "Well we're not sure if Florida State is really that good this year, or if they're really one of the top four teams in the country, but what are we going to do? NOT put an undefeated Florida State, defending national champion in the playoff?". I can't say I disagree, but I will say the "tone" speaks volumes of the ACC. There were some people that got excited for Florida State game on the road against N.C. State given their "history of troubles" there, but that was for shit.
In short, we're looking at an undefeated #2, Florida State, where the consensus is "They're good, but... they're really not that special"
Now that we've addressed Florida State and that these guys are "Just a good team". I want to focus on the Irish. Over the past two weeks, I've talked to a dozen or so Notre Dame fans about this game, and the feedback I got... to me... was just sad. There was hope, but there was no confidence. The worst response I got was from a guy who was all "Irished out" (he had the hat on, the T-shirt under the hoodie) who said "Ahh, I don't think we have a chance, I just hope we come out and play well." Now this was just one guy, so I wont tear him apart, but I can't tell you how many times I heard "If we can just get by" or "somehow pull this off" (as if it was a magic trick to win a football game)... I don't necessarily.... have a problem with this coming from fans, as they can think/feel/believe whatever they want...
...The problem I have is that this is the message that's being sent out from the football program at The University of Notre Dame. "We're going to try to 'get by', we're working, we're trying to figure out how we can 'get by'"... trying to "get by"?! GET BY?!!! Are you kidding me?! Who are you? An aging stripper with no high school diploma or any other skills that's just been demoted to the Tuesday lunch shift with three kids to feed?... You are supposed to be the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. And that's the problem, and it's been that way for the past 15+ years now.
"Case, we played for the National Championship in 2012" Yeah you did... You "got by" the regular season, and you.. yourself... were "in shock" when you were able to (or "found a way to") beat Oklahoma on the road, and then in the National Championship you ran across a team that "expected" to be there, and they put it on you... "As Expected".
If Notre Dame wants to keep slinging around "tradition" like they do, "expectations" need to re-evaluated. As the years keep passing the only "tradition" or message out of Notre Dame these kids... or shall I say recruits... are seeing is one of "hope" and "mediocrity". That one guy said "I hope we come out and play well". There shouldn't be any hope involved, he should expect Notre Dame to come out and play well. They may be the Irish, but where did the Fight go?
I can see I'm getting long winded, so I'll wind this down. I don't have a pick in this one, I "hope" (as I've been conditioned) to see a good game. I "wish" for a great game, like the one back on November 13, 1993... but I guess I shouldn't "expect" one... I don't know what I'm supposed to "expect."
I used to be a Notre Dame fan when I was a boy, but I got tired after 7 or 8 years hearing how good they were 7 or 8 years ago... "Tradition" as they like to call it, isn't history, it's a perpetual practice of excellence. A practice that has been excused from Notre Dame for far too long.
I know no one cares what I have to say, but here's my challenge to both of these teams:
You may have won some games, you may have even played for or won a National Championship. But your program used to have an attitude. You didn't just execute, you did it with extreme prejudice. Your tradition wasn't so much about the wins and losses; Your tradition was about the nasty bad ass attitude you brought to the field game after game, year after year... Show me that tradition again. Show me the ruthlessness you had back in 1993.
Here is your guide for this week in college football!
11:00 a.m. Games:
#13 Georgia @ #23 Missouri - Line Missouri +3 (Line remains Missouri +3 after the Todd Gurley Suspension)
Last year Missouri went down between the hedges and got a big W, 41-26. It was the classic case where Georgia simply wasn't prepared for the game. The Mizzou D had 4 turnovers: 2 picks off Aaron Murray and a sack fumble returned for a touchdown. In short, Murray was Missouri's best player.
This is a MUST WIN for Georgia. If they win they hold their fate in the East. If they lose, they need Missouri to lose 3 games in the SEC. (remaining schedule: @ Florida, vs Vandy, vs Kentucky, @ A&M @ Tenn, vs Arkansas) and Georgia would have to win out (@ Arkansas, Florida, @ Kentucky, vs Auburn) otherwise Mizzou will take the East. (note: Florida could still slide in to take the East, but I don't see it happening)
Yesterday, I was going to give up the 3 and taking the Dawgs, Georgia didn't have Gurley last year and I thought he (and his beastly 8 yards per carry) would be the difference maker this year, but due to his suspension yesterday. All bets are off... Does the Georgia run game and offense go to hell? Or does true freshman Nick Chubbs step up and carry the load? Your guess is as good as mine. As always... Saturday will tell the tale.
Texas vs #11 Oklahoma (The Red River Showdown @ The Cotton Bowl) -Line: Texas +14.5
This used to be the game to determine who was going to win the Big 12, but TCU taking down Oklahoma, and the Baylor spanking of Texas has made this the one the opening act for the Big 12 on Saturday. These teams still don't like each other and I am interested to see how this shakes out. I'm a non-bettor in this one, but I would say Texas covers the spread. (I've got Texas as a wild card in every game this season), but Oklahoma takes the game.
Northwestern @ Minnesota - Line: Northwestern +4 (Yes Minnesota is the favorite)
Somehow this has made it to be a big game... not sure how, but Northwestern has cleared Penn State and Wisconsin. On the other side, Minnesota is 4-1 (The Loss to TCU doesn't look so bad, but no notable victories as Michigan continues to slide). Both of these teams control their fate in the conference.
Minnesota has had 2 weeks to prepare for this, while Northwestern is going to have to get past the potential for the classic post big game let down (The W over Wisconsin last week) that so many teams suffer from. I think they can and will. I'm a non-bettor due to Minnesota's bye week, but I like the Cats straight up.
2:30 p.m. (Buckle Up- Big Games!)
#2 Auburn @ #3 Mississippi State - Line: Mississippi State +2.5
And the crew from College Gameday is loving it. No need to leave the state of Mississippi just a short 97 miles to this week's destination in Starkville, MS (from Oxford last week)
2 top 5's squaring off... Just another day in the SEC West... Get the popcorn, this is sure to be a show. Auburn has proven me a fool, they are for real. At the same time I'm a believer in this Mississippi State team lead by Dak Prescott. This is what makes the SEC so great.
If you were to try and break down the numbers, you'll drive yourself mad.
Total O:
Miss St #20 - 2709 yds (50/50 - run/pass)
Aub #36 - 2486 yds (54/46 - run/pass)
Points Per Game
Miss St #12 - 42.6
Aub #13 -40.0
Total D:
Miss St #76 - 2132 yds given up
(Note: They played Texas A&M, The #1 O in the country by yards and gave up garbage yards to them and LSU)
Aub #15 - 1533 yds given up
Run D:
Miss St #13 - 491 yds given up
Aub #14 - 501 yds given up
Turnovers:
Miss St 12 total (9 picks, 3 fumbles)
Auburn 7 (7 picks)
Points allowed
Miss St #22 - 19.4 per game
Auburn #9 - 14.4 per game
... Oh and by the way, you can actually just throw out all the numbers, because these two teams have HISTORICALLY had great games. In 2010, when Auburn won the National Championship with Cam Newton and went 14-0... The final score of the Miss St game was 17-14. and in 2011 Auburn came up with a Massive Tackle at the goal line with 10 seconds to win the game. I'll just let the video below do the talking.
The odds-makers are all over this one, I can't pick, I just want to enjoy the show. Gun to the head? It's really hard to pick against Auburn right now. But, I really just need some more COWBELL! Let's go Bulldogs! Come on, Gameday is in town, MORE COWBELL!
#9 TCU @ #5 Baylor - Line: TCU +8.5 (down from TCU +10.5 on Monday)
Another tale of 2 undefeateds getting ready to square off.
When you look at the line of 8.5 in favor of Baylor, I think the perception has clouded the reality in this one. The perception is that TCU, even with their solid D (which they are known for) won't be able to "keep up" or score with the Baylor Offense that leads the nation with 51 points per game. However, the numbers and the history between these two teams tells a lot different of a story. By the numbers, TCU is no slouch averaging 42+ points per game (11th in the country), so it's not like the Horned Frogs can't score with these guys. At the same time, we are all aware of TCU's strength on D, which ranks 7th in points allowed and 7th in yds per game. And let's give a little credit to Baylor's D which SOMEHOW turned it around. They are 5th in both points allowed and yards per game (that is a huge turnaround from how bad they were last year and in 2012), but thus far they haven't seen the competition (Oklahoma) like TCU has. So you make some adjustments and all of a sudden we've got some numbers that look very much the same.
We can take this a little further and look at the past few meetings between these two. When you look at this, you're really looking at two teams that really battle it out... and maybe you could even argue that TCU has the edge given they stuck it to Baylor two out of the last four years.
2013 (@ TCU): Baylor 41, TCU 38 (TCU had the ball 2nd and 10 from the 23 with 11 seconds left, Instead of going for the tie, TCU threw a pic in the Baylor endzone to seal the deal)
2012 (@ Baylor): TCU 49, Baylor 21
2011 (@ Baylor) (with RG III): Baylor 50, TCU 48 (TCU rallied and scored 25 points in the 4th quarter to take the lead 48-47, Baylor was able to take the lead back with a field goal with 1 minute remaining. TCU was on the march but was out of timeouts and on 3rd down threw a pick which ended the game)
2010 TCU rolled 45-10 at home.
That said, I'm loving TCU and the 8.5 points their handing out. Will they win? Well the game is in Waco, so you would think the Bears have the advantage there, but I think this would fit nicely into the trend of losing at home this year. Let's put a few dollars on TCU and the money line... I wonder what the payout would be if I took TCU and gave up 8.5 points... That's right, too much TCU D for the Bears. I like the Horned Frogs on the road to pile on the points in a statement game! (... now don't let me down....)
#12 Oregon @ #18 UCLA - Line: UCLA +2 (Down from +3 on Monday)
In 1 week this has gone from "The Game" to "Damn! we gotta have this". Given the layout of the Pac 12, Oregon is in little better shape. They could lose this and they still control their fate in the North to get to the Pac 12 championship (although 2 losses on the resume doesn't look great when it comes to the playoff picture). UCLA on the other hand, if they lose, the trek back to the top of the South becomes a little trying. They would have 2 conference losses, 1 to Utah (who is in the South also) and they are looking up at a whole bunch of teams: Arizona (no losses), and USC, Arizona St and Utah, who each have 1 loss. UCLA would have to win out, and they're going to need some help. Their win over Arizona State helps the cause in the long run, but overall, it doesn't look too promising for the Bruins.
2 teams with bad losses last week... The "story" here is Oregon's offensive line that is laid up in the training room with injuries and UCLA's line, or should I say their lack of one. The Ducks are starting a true freshman AND a walk on at the tackles. Yes, a TRUE FRESHMAN and a WALK ON... at the tackles... This has resulted with 12 sacks in their last 2 games (5 against Arizona last week). On the other side UCLA's line might improve if they started using some walk ons and true freshmen, they let up 10 sacks against Utah and a total of 23 on the year (4th WORST in ALL OF FOOTBALL... But they are still better than SMU, Idaho and Wake Forest, so they got that going for them... Which is nice...). Bret Hundley has spent more time on the turf than the grounds crew... And it doesn't look like that's going to improve this week.
At the end of the day, I'm just not much of a believer in UCLA as I said at the beginning of the year. I liked Utah last week (14.5 point dogs) strait up and I'll give up the 2 points and take the wounded Ducks this week.
North Carolina @ #6 Notre Dame - Line: North Carolina +16.5
The only reason I brought this up is it's a classic trap game for the Irish, a hard fought win over Stanford last week and they've got the big one next week on the road @ Florida State. Standing in the was is a pitiful North Carolina team, 3 straight losses (@ East Carolina, @ Clemson, and vs VT - all by 14+ points) Seeing that, it's going to be hard for Coach Kelly to get the Irish focused for this one (I don't even know if they need to be, N.C. may have shut it down for the season after their last loss). If North Carolina was going to put a charge into a game to make a statement this would be it (Georgia Tech is the only other ranked team on their schedule). It would be the first signs of life out of them all season. Even so, trap game, I'm staying away. As a non-bettor, North Carolina covers but lose by 10 to an Irish team that starts slow.
8:00 p.m.
#3 Ole Miss @ #14 Texas A&M - Line: Ole Miss +2 (down from +3 on Monday)
Ole Miss coming off the biggest win in school history with the second best D in the country by points allowed (8th by yards). On the other side, A&M is coming off a beating from the other school in Mississippi, but they still have the best offense in the country (by yards). This should be a great game, but I think the Rebels are going to be a little hung over while the Aggies come in focused. I hope I'm wrong as I will be rooting for the Rebels, as such, my heart is getting in the way, so I'm a non-bettor. It's always hard to go against a solid D, but the head is saying give up the 2 and take the Aggies.
Fun little fact: As stated before the Ole Miss fans stormed the field and stole the goal posts after the victory over Alabama. The result was a $50,000 fine from the SEC for rushing the field (Come on.... what's that about? Fines?!... The SEC should have paid Ole Miss $50K for beating Bama... Just increased the value of the SEC brand name... damn...) and $25,000 lost due to missing goal posts. $75,000 in total damages due to the event.
What you may, or may have not known is later Saturday evening one of the criminals (yes it is still a crime to steal goal posts) tweeted a photo of one of the posts in his apartment and said they were going to cut it up (Not exactly something I would personally flaunt, but it is what it is) The punishment for their crimes? Ross Bjork (the AD for Ole Miss) tweets "Save me & Coach Hugh Freeze a piece..." but to his credit, Ross did warn the delinquents to be careful when cutting it and said University personnel could cut it for them to ensure their safety... Thanks for stealing our goal posts.
Ross's response resulted in MASSIVE support. Ole Miss was ready to absorb the fine and replace the posts themselves (pennies to them) but fans reached out to ask how they could help, so they set up a donation page and raised over $95,000... I guess some criminals couldn't carry one of the posts that far and Ole Miss personnel found it near the stadium the next day, so they cut that up and used that as donation gifts.
Ross has since become "stern" and when asked in an off camera interview about the criminals he responded "Of course we're not going to press charges... unless they try and sell it"
This link below details the story.. but my favorite part of this...
"They walked it right down the middle of the road, and even the cops stopped to watch and give the guys thumbs up."
Ok!!! Back to Business!!!! Quit Screwing around!!!!!!
9:30 p.m.
USC @ #10 Arizona - Line: Arizona +2.5
USC seems to be having some trouble establishing themselves and Arizona is trying to get over the hump. The W last week on the road against Oregon was big... But these things go "Win 1 and you get some attention, Win 2 and some people start taking note, Win 3 and now you're somebody." (unless it's the SEC). I think it's interesting they come in as underdogs in their own home after that big win in Eugene to this 2 loss USC team. Obviously, the experts are looking for an Arizona letdown here. However, they had extended recovery time (Their last game was on a Thursday) and I think they take this and run. They take this underdog status and use it as motivation (Even though they're ranked #10, to be considered an underdog at home is insulting). At the same time, I'm not sure how USC is going to respond. They need to win this or they go down 0-2 in conference (both losses on the same side) and Sarks first season at the helm doesn't look so good with 3 losses through 6 games... So there's plenty to fight for. Even so, I like Zona. For the record, I'll be a "little-bettor" in this one.
... Just another great week in college football. Enjoy!
